Authors: Jeff Goodman and Greg Love

Overview

This white paper summarizes a statistical approach for estimating environmental cleaning cost uncertainty. We selected a well-known statistical approach—Monte Carlo simulation—to develop a cost estimate that incorporates the uncertainties inherent in environmental cleanup projects. Uncertainties that can affect project cost result from factors such as long project time frames (in excess of 30 years in certain cases), technical complexity, and the current degree of project definition.

This paper explains how we use Monte Carlo simulation to incorporate uncertainty into cost estimates and provide a range of costs for the cleanup program. After an introduction on cost uncertainty, the paper explains what Monte Carlo simulation is and how it can be used to predict project cost uncertainty. The paper then discusses the results of such analyses.

More information is available in PDF.

CONTACT INFORMATION
Debi McGhee
Project Performance Corporation
703-748-7000
dmcghee@ppc.com